Publications
COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy by Smoking Status Among Ohio Adults, with Teferra, A. A., Nau, M., Tosun, L., Sahr, T. R., Freedner, N., & Ferketich, A. K., Ohio Journal of Public Health (2023).
Link: https://ojph.org/article/id/5135/
Working Paper
Military Expenditure and Foreign Direct Investment Inflow: An Empirical Analysis, with Narendra Regmi and Krishna Sharma (Accepted at Review of International Economics).
Abstract: his paper examines the relationship between military expenditure and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in 61 low- and middle-income countries over 1990–2018, with a focus on how this relationship is shaped by conflict dynamics and institutional contexts. Using a dynamic panel estimator (Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond), we find that military expenditure has no significant effect on FDI in non-conflict settings. During conflict, however, higher military spending is positively associated with FDI inflows, suggesting that foreign investors may interpret such spending as a signal of state commitment to security. This effect is concentrated in lower-income and institutionally weaker countries, where military expenditure may substitute for weak governance as a signal to foreign investors. The effect is also strongest at conflict onset and in the early years of conflict, but fades as conflicts persist. In addition, military expenditure increases FDI during minor conflicts but has no significant effect during major conflicts, and we find no evidence of anticipation effects from future conflicts. Overall, the results suggest that military spending can reassure investors in the short run under specific conflict conditions, but that its effectiveness weakens as conflict endures and does not replace broader institutional improvements.
Why give up the ability to choose? Evidence from a Nepalese land allocation program, with Abraham Holland and Bhisma K Bhusal.
Abstract: In theory, individuals should prefer a choice-based lottery such as random serial dictatorship (RSD) to a uniform random lottery (URL) when allocating private goods. However, household surveys, an information intervention, and a lab-in-the-field experiment from Nepal’s post-earthquake land allocation program show that almost half of participants prefer URL despite its weaker match quality. We find no evidence that comprehension, risk aversion, social pressure, or altruism explain this pattern. Instead, ambiguity about others’ choices and concerns about procedural integrity appear more plausible explanations. Our findings suggest that in contexts where state capacity is weak, allocation mechanism design must consider not only efficiency but transparency.
Beyond Generations: Old Age Allowance and Girls’ Educational Investment in Nepal, with Narendra Regmi
We study the intergenerational effects of Nepal’s Old Age Allowance (OAA), a universal non-contributory pension, on children’s educational expenditure. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design based on the program’s age-70 eligibility rule, we find a strong gender asymmetry: OAA receipt increases annual educational expenditure for female students by more than Rs 4,000, while the corresponding effect for male students is small and statistically insignificant. The increase for girls is concentrated in tuition and uniforms, indicating that additional household resources are used to cover formal schooling costs. Results by recipient gender do not support a simple female-control bargaining channel; instead, the evidence is more consistent with a financial-constraints interpretation in which daughters’ schooling is the margin most affected by limited household resources. Heterogeneity analysis further supports this view, with stronger effects in mixed-gender households, among relatively better-off rural households, and among households located farther from primary schools. The results suggest that social pensions can generate meaningful intergenerational spillovers and reduce gender disparities in educational investment even when they are not explicitly targeted to children.
Work in Progress
Mental Health and Worker Performance: Evidence from the Public Sector, with Muhammad Yasir Khan, Zain Chaudhry, Dietmar Fehr, and Karrar Hussain.
Special Economic Zones and Health Impact: Evidence from India, with Arpita Soni and Fizzah Malik.